The Conservatives avenged their shock defeat in 2023 to regain Blockley, one of their former strongholds, in the recent by-election. Their joy came at the expense of the Green Party, whose vote plunged by 49%, costing them their sole representative on the Council in one fell swoop.
Unlike 2023, when only the Conservatives and the Greens stood, all the main parties participated. The vote was more likely to be volatile, as proven by the Greens dropping from first to fourth. A Conservative win raises one big question ahead of the 2027 Cotswold District Council elections: are they making a comeback?
Result (2023 in brackets):
Conservative: 54.7% (+11.0)
Lib Dem: 29.2% (New)
Reform UK: 7.5% (New)
Green: 6.9% (-49.5)
Labour: 1.8% (New)
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM GREEN: The Conservatives now have 11 councillors, remaining the largest opposition party on the Council. This result wipes out any Green Party presence on the Council.
Conservatives reclaim a former heartland:
Blockley’s loss to the Greens in 2023 came from the Lib Dems not standing in a traditionally strong Conservative area. The ward sits within the Conservative-held North Cotswold constituency and the county council district of Campden Vale, held despite a Reform UK challenge at the 2025 Gloucestershire County Council election.
Tom Bradley, councillor for Campden Vale and Leader of the Conservative Group on Gloucestershire County Council, gave the party a local candidate to centre their campaign around. The result gives the party hope that, with strong candidates in place, they can claim back traditionally Tory leaning seats in 2027.
Total wipeout for the Greens on Cotswold District Council:
The Greens started 2026 with two councillors on the Council, but a couple of by-elections have wiped these out. Both losses were substantial, losing over 51% of the vote in the Rissingtons earlier this year and over 49% here.
The Greens’ bleak fortunes here coincide with their change of national direction under Zack Polanski, who became leader in 2025. While their prospects in urban areas have improved, this may well come at the cost of rural areas such as this.
Reform stutter onto the scene:
Reform remains the unknown quantity ahead of the 2027 elections, having not stood in 2023. Their performance in former Conservative areas at recent by-elections offers a clue as to how they may fare. In Campden-Vale, which includes Blockley, the Conservatives comfortably saw off Reform, and this result reaffirms that position. It indicates that Reform may struggle to make the breakthroughs here that they have managed elsewhere in Gloucestershire.
Is a Conservative comeback on the cards?
The pause on Gloucestershire’s Local Government Reorganisations means that the 2027 elections on Cotswold District Council are back on the cards. Which means a fight between the incumbent Lib Dems and a potentially insurgent Conservative Party.
With the possible return of a well-organised Conservative operation, the battle for their former wards could be fierce. Conservative success depends on whether Reform makes a concerted effort to campaign here, splitting the Right’s vote. The Greens and Labour’s efforts will decide how the left’s vote splits, which could prevent the Lib Dems from holding off Conservative advances.
A look ahead for the development industry
As the Local Plan progresses, expect a politicisation of the process ahead of the 2027 elections. Splits within the Lib Dems on the recent reg 19 vote underline local disquiet at a plan that allocates sites in villages across the Cotswolds. A Conservative Party emboldened by by-election triumphs like Blockley could seize on this as an issue to campaign on, hoping to win back former rural strongholds.