A huge swathe of executive orders changing the energy system has already been seen in the days since Trump’s inauguration, including the declaration of a national energy emergency, the pausing of leasing of onshore wind developments and withdrawal from the Paris Climate initiative.
The UK was already the first G7 economy to sign Net Zero into law with a strong national consensus on the energy transition, a mission that the Labour government has established as a central marker to be judged on in four years’ time, at the next election. President Trump seems to be going in the opposite direction to the rest of the world on energy policy, generating fears in the international community about the impact this will have on the global energy transformation.
The hour-long debate featured experts in US politics and the UK energy sector and explored how Trump’s presidency may change the political and commercial landscape of energy in the United Kingdom.
Panel
- Toby Moffett, Partner at Mercury Public Affairs and former Democratic Congressman for Connecticut.
- Kathy Morris, JBP Senior Counsel with experience around defence and energy security.
- Alexander Gray, Deputy Director for External Affairs at Energy UK, largest trade association representing the energy sector in the UK. Represent around 130 businesses, giving a broad energy sector view to government, business or the media.
- Vin Webber, Partner at Mercury Public Affairs and former Republican Congressman for Minnesota, and former Secretary of the House Republican Conference.
Overview
Trump’s attacks on the Inflation Reduction Act and Net Zero have gained traction, but what he is really against is the government funding the energy transition, rather than renewable technologies themselves. We may see more flexibility than people expect of President Trump, evident from his refrain from attacking China in these early days of his administration. However, the policy uncertainty that follows US presidential transitions may deter investment for long-term energy projects in the United States, with companies in the UK potentially focusing on more stable markets closer to home.
Geopolitically, the United States remains dominant in the energy market, but China’s rise as a leader in renewable energy is significant. China is now the world’s top manufacturer of wind turbines, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies, making it a key player in the global energy landscape.
Both the UK and US want to reduce their reliance on China, who currently control 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals processing, which may lead to opportunities for both countries to expand this industry domestically.
Whilst the use of federal funding for the clean energy transition is doubtful under the Trump administration, private investment is likely to assume a dominant role in shaping the renewable energy sector in the United States. The UK’s proximity to the North Sea makes it ideal for offshore wind projects. Combined with its regulatory stability and industry leadership, this positions the UK to attract increased long-term energy investment from the US.
Key Webinar Themes
Trump’s Transactional Nature: Trump is first and foremost a transaction man, who knows about the art of the deal. Looking behind the rhetoric of ‘Drill baby Drill’, and more to ‘Deals baby Deals’. Trump has no ideological commitments, but looks at the world as a business transaction, which is reflected in his language and policies. He wants more American jobs and more American energy.
The mineral supply chain: Both the US and UK need to reduce their reliance on China for critical minerals needed for renewable technologies, which offers the UK huge opportunities to expand its lithium mining and processing. Investment in domestic UK mining and refining, and active positioning as US suppliers, could be critical for energy security.
The drive for renewables: Through a commercial lens, the UK remains a stable and attractive market and world leader for renewable energy investment, which, despite challenges, will outlast the Trump administration. Whilst Trump won’t prioritise funding for the energy transition, the US private sector will continue to seek partnerships with companies in the UK.