The news no one expected landed today, as the media scrutinised Kemi’s shadow cabinet reshuffle: Sir Keir Starmer is standing down as the MP for Holborn and St Pancras.
The former Labour party leader and Prime Minister has announced his resignation from the House of Commons to focus on ‘international affairs’, triggering a parliamentary by-election for the seat he has represented since 2015.
His announcement to the local newspaper, the Camden New Journal, on Andy Burnham’s first official day in Parliament following summer recess, perhaps best characterises his feelings towards the party that abandoned him.
Now the fifth parliamentary by-election process of 2026 begins in the Camden constituency, where a mere four months ago local elections saw several Labour councillors defeated by the Green Party, including the former Labour Council Leader.
Had Starmer thrown in the towel then, Labour holding the seat would have been unlikely. Particularly in the context of demonstrable opposition to his government, with Green and Independent popularity surging in the southern part of Camden borough.
However, as the press speculates a possible end to Labour’s 43-year hold of the Holborn and St Pancras constituency, the rapidly changing political landscape in London and the country more generally leaves plenty of room for manoeuvres before election day.
Local elections in May came as Labour experienced one of its dreariest electoral moments in history. The Greens were close on their heels in London YouGov polling in the weeks leading up to elections, and were the architects behind their demise in several central London boroughs, including Hackney, Lewisham, Lambeth and Southwark.
In Camden? Labour survived, with casualties. 17 of Labour’s councillors were defeated by Lib Dem and Green insurgents. But 30 Labour members were re-elected after fierce campaigning in defence of the party’s record in the borough, rather than on the national stage.
If Labour could hold its majority here in one of its worst electoral years in London’s history, do things look smooth sailing for a Labour re-election during the Burnham bounce?
In the distant political landscape of the 2024 general election, Sir Keir’s safe majority was challenged in part by Andrew Feinstein, the Independent candidate campaigning on the pro-Palestinian ticket against Labour. His 7,312 votes almost doubled that of the Greens and took 18.9% of the voteshare.
However, the Greens’ change in political direction since then has seen them take a stronger stance on Palestine and form alliances with independent groups campaigning on the issue. It is likely that, as in Camden’s local elections this May, an agreement will be made for the groups not to run against each other and split the vote on the left.
If we consider the Green Party to be the serious contender for the constituency – which we do – their candidate selection may be a significant factor in their electoral chances. Green Party leader and London Assembly Member Zack Polanski is known to be vying for a London seat in the House of Commons, and the symbolism of winning this seat of the former Labour prime minister may be too much for him to resist.
The Green Party may well take caution over this choice though: Polanski’s personal favourability has taken a slight hit since May elections following a number of social media posts. Particularly damaging to his reputation was a criticism of the police response to the Golders Green terrorist attack.
Whilst he would be almost certain to win a seat on the firmly Green areas around Bristol and other parts of inner London, his contest against the right Labour candidate in Holborn and St Pancras may prove fatal for the party leader. If unable to galvanise the support needed for victory in an area like this, Zack Polanski’s future leadership of the Greens could be tenuous.
May’s results showed Labour loyalties to run deep, particularly in the north of the constituency, which will only feel invigorated by the optimism of the new Andy Burnham premiership.
This will by no means be an easy battle for either party. Whoever is put forward, both Labour and the Greens will be throwing every scrap of resource they have at this by-election for what would be an invaluable victory for them both.