The race for City Hall has suddenly become more interesting. Over the bank holiday weekend, Sir James Cleverly quit Kemi Badenoch’s shadow cabinet and put himself forward to become the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London in the 2028 election, bringing considerably more political experience to the contest than any other Tory candidate.
Cleverly is a former Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary, but he also knows City Hall well. He represented Bexley and Bromley on the London Assembly from 2008 to 2016, where his responsibilities included policing, regeneration and the environment, and he chaired the London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority.
His emerging pitch for candidacy is focused on making London more affordable, reducing regulation, tackling crime and backing business. He has also promised to review ULEZ, mounting the age-old accusations against Sir Sadiq Khan for pursuing a “war on motorists”, arguing that the cost of travelling around London is hurting families and businesses, particularly in outer London.
Housing is likely to be one of the most significant battlegrounds in London’s mayoral election less than two years from now, with Cleverly already watching London’s planning system closely as shadow housing secretary. He has backed calls to unlock brownfield land, support regeneration and reduce the regulation and complexity that he argues make homes harder to deliver. He has also questioned the impact of London Plan minimum space standards on the supply and price of new flats.
For developers, his candidacy is worth watching closely. A hypothetical Cleverly administration could mark a sharp change in City Hall’s approach to development, with the central focus on viability and brownfield regeneration, and a review of some of Sir Sadiq’s Greenbelt growth areas set out in the new London Plan. While Cleverly has not yet defined his planning ambitions in a detailed manifesto, this likely direction of travel is significant given the Mayor’s influence over the London Plan and major planning applications.
The political significance of Cleverly’s candidacy for Mayor of London may be just as important. His entry as a high-profile centre-right candidate could help the Conservatives contain the threat from Reform UK in London’s traditionally Conservative areas.
The May 2026 London local elections demonstrated that, even in times of volatile political climate, the capital does not always follow the same political pattern as the rest of England. Reform made a significant breakthrough in Havering, but it otherwise failed to make the kind of widespread gains from the Conservatives seen elsewhere in the country. The Tories retained important areas of support on the city’s fringes and reclaimed its treasured boroughs of Wandsworth and Westminster, pointing to a substantial centre-right electorate in London that has not en-masse migrated to Reform.
Cleverly may be particularly well placed to appeal to these voters in the capital. As a former Home Secretary, he can compete with Reform UK on crime, policing and immigration, while his moderate, established profile and reputation for competence may also appeal to Conservative voters dissatisfied with Khan but wary of Nigel Farage’s party. That poses a direct challenge to Reform UK’s Laila Cunningham, whose campaign has sought to position the party as the principal alternative to Khan on issues including crime, transport, ULEZ and the cost of living. Cleverly can contest much of the same ground while presenting himself as a more experienced and potentially more credible candidate to run City Hall.
For Sadiq Khan, who is yet to confirm whether he will seek election for a fourth term as London’s Mayor, this changes the calculation too. A divided right would clearly benefit Labour. But if Cleverly can consolidate traditional Conservative voters and bring around some of those considering Reform UK, the 2028 mayoral contest could become considerably tighter.
It raises the possibility of a repeat of a critical lesson from the May 2026 local elections: Reform can generate momentum and make gains in certain parts of Greater London, but displacing the Conservatives as the main vehicle for the capital’s centre-right vote may prove much more difficult.
Though Cleverly still needs to secure the Conservative nomination, he enters the contest with significant advantages. His previous experience at City Hall, including as a London Assembly member and leader of the Conservative group, gives him an established network in the capital, while he is also expected to attract substantial support from Conservative Assembly members and figures across Tory-held London boroughs. His arrival means the battle for London in 2028 is already taking shape around housing, development, crime, transport and affordability, and increasingly around which party can present itself as the most credible alternative to Labour in the capital.