Blog

Words: JBP Political Analysis Team

April 8, 2025

The political landscape of the South West is poised for significant shifts in the upcoming local elections. The 2021 elections marked a high point for the Conservative Party, buoyed by the success of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. However, the political climate has since evolved, and the results from 2021 may not serve as a reliable baseline for the Conservatives’ performance in this cycle.

Labour, now in government following the 2024 General Election, faces challenges despite its substantial parliamentary majority. The party’s narrow popular vote share in that election, the lowest for a majority government since World War II, coupled with recent declines in national opinion polls, suggests a complex electoral environment.

The Liberal Democrats have regained their ‘plague on all your houses’ appeal, positioning themselves competitively in regions like Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, and Cornwall. Their performance in the 2024 General Election indicates potential to lead, or significantly influence, minority administrations in
these areas.

Reform UK, absent in previous local elections, has emerged as a notable force. While the South West is not its traditional stronghold, the party’s strategy to contest all 55 seats could disrupt traditional voting patterns, drawing support from both Conservative and Labour bases.

Adding to the complexity, these elections are likely the last for the County areas and the West of England Combined Authority in their current configurations. This impending structural change introduces an element of unpredictability, as voters engage with institutions on the cusp of transformation.

In this context of fluidity and change, our analysis delves into the pivotal issues across key councils in the South West, with a particular focus on the status of local planning authorities in their development plan processes. Our South West Political Preview provides an analysis of the election on 1 May for the West of England Combined Authority Metro Mayor, and council elections in Wiltshire, Gloucestershire, Devon and Cornwall. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developers of all shapes and sizes navigating the evolving political and administrative landscape.

For further insights into these elections and their implications for development projects, local infrastructure, or decision-making processes, our South West planning and development communications specialists are available to provide expert analysis – contact us at swpolitics@jbp.co.uk.