Blog

Words: JBP Political Analysis Team

April 30, 2025

The political landscape of the West Midlands is poised for significant shifts in the upcoming local elections. The 2021 elections marked a high point for the Conservative Party, buoyed by the success of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. However, the political climate has since evolved, and the results from 2021 may not serve as a reliable baseline for the Conservatives’ performance in this cycle.

Labour also faces challenges despite its substantial parliamentary majority. The party’s narrow popular vote share in the 2024 election, coupled with recent declines in national opinion polls, suggests a complex electoral environment. Despite losing parliamentary seats in many parts of Staffordshire, Warwickshire and urban centres like Worcester, the Conservatives managed to hold several of their seats in the region.

With declining support for Labour nationally and substantial Conservative majorities in areas such as Warwickshire and Staffordshire, it is less predictable how they will fare in these elections in the West Midlands.

Reform UK, absent in previous local elections, has emerged as a notable force. They will be hoping for a good night in some parts of the region, with Staffordshire and parts of Warwickshire being seen as fertile ground for the party. They’re contesting every seat in the region and could influence tight races between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, likely drawing more votes from the Tories.

Whilst the Conservatives look likely to lose a number of seats and even overall control in these elections, their opposition is spilt amongst a combination of parties. Therefore, it is possible that even if the Conservatives do have a grim night in the region, no other party will take overall control in the local authorities.

Adding to the complexity, these elections are likely to be the last under current county structures, as Worcestershire and Warwickshire move toward single unitaries and Staffordshire proposes a two-unitary model. Though excluded from this year’s Devolution Priority Programme, all aim to join future Combined Authorities to unlock devolution benefits amid looming reforms. This impending structural change introduces an element of unpredictability, with institutions on the cusp of transformation.

In this context of fluidity and change, our analysis delves into the pivotal issues across key councils in the West Midlands. Our West Midlands Political Preview provides an analysis of the election on 1 May for the council elections in Shropshire, Staffordshire, Worcestershire and Warwickshire. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developers of all shapes and sizes navigating the evolving political and administrative landscape.

For further insights into these elections and their implications for development projects, local infrastructure, or decision-making processes, our West Midlands planning and development communications specialists are available to provide expert analysis. Please contact us at wmpolitics@jbp.co.uk