The Green Party has emerged victorious this morning, with Hannah Spencer, elected as the new Member of Parliament for Gorton and Denton, with a 4,000 majority.
The central point is that parties on the further left and further right of British politics have gained ground, squeezing Labour and the Conservatives.
The result of the by-election is a reminder that they are very strange events. This is a helpful reminder more often by elections are shaped by the circumstances of whoever has stepped down, they give voters a low risk opportunity to give the sitting Government a kicking, and they frequently produce outcomes that look odd when compared with general election results. The Liberal surge at Orpington in 1962 is the classic example, and more recently the fragmented result in Rochdale in 2024.
This contest was triggered by Andrew Gwynne standing down following controversy over messages in a private WhatsApp group, which inevitably shaped the campaign.
The winner, Hannah Spencer, a 34 year old plumber, is now the Green MP for a seat long regarded as safe Labour territory, and becomes the party’s first MP in the north of England. For Labour and Sir Keir Starmer this is a headache. There had already been internal arguments about whether Andy Burnham should have been allowed to stand, reportedly blocked by Labour’s NEC, exposing tensions between the national leadership and its Metro Mayors.
With local elections coming in May, where Labour are defending seats across major metropolitan authorities and in London, the result raises questions about how solid the party’s urban base really is. Reform came second and performed well, suggesting their appeal is now strong across the country pointing to traditional two party support continuing to fracture.
A Green gain in a Labour stronghold is significant. The challenge now for Labour is whether they pivot left to respond to that pressure, or attempt to chase the Reform vote instead. But victory will bring greater scrutiny for Spencer and her party if they are to hold the seat beyond a by-election protest vote.