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Genuinely Local, or gerrymandered boundaries?

Written by

Mark Hawthorne

Director of JBP Local

Steve Reed, the Secretary of State in what could be his last outing in the role, was met with a hostile reception in the chamber from all sides.

We’d had a taste of this debate on Tuesday, when an urgent question had flushed out that Local Government Reorganisation decision was going to be announced on Thursday – but it’s fair to say that what unfolded was a fairly hostile hour and a half that underlined how contentious this entire programme has become.

James Cleverly led on the accusation of gerrymandering, a line repeated by other opposition parties throughout the debate. Now that’s a fairly strong line, and to have that resonate across party divides is highly unusual, but then again Steve Reed has been on thin ice on this issue ever since the aborted attempt to delay the local elections earlier in the year.

Part of the problem is that in the geographies being reorganised, Labour tends to have control on the small urban centres, and the opposition parties tend to run the more rural districts and counties.

Running through the announcement’s todays, while Steve Reed claims (with some evidence) that the proposals are supported by multiple parties, there are very many instances where the option picked is that being promoted by the local Labour administration.

The other problem is that the original guidance clearly stated that proposals should be based on populations of 500k, within existing boundaries and financially viable. However, a recently released letter set to Essex County Council by MHCLG shows that ministers overruled officials concern on both size and financial viability which certainly isn’t helping Steve Reeds case.

This was never going to be easy. Ultimately, all government decisions are political and often designed to placate their own support. Which is why it was fairly surprising to hear so many Labour MPs speak out against the announcement.

Indeed, the level of discord from some Labour members was surprising – with one angrily ending on the line “It’s not too late to stop and think again!”.

There were to be fair a couple of cheerleaders who had come to back the somewhat cornered Secretary of State – but not – it has to be said – in great numbers, which maybe underlines the fact that LGR has few cheerleaders in the House of Commons.

So, what happens next?

All eyes will now turn to the councils that feel most aggrieved by today’s announcement. Of the county proposals, only one (Gloucestershire) got selected. The previous round saw three county councils instigate JR procedures and the many of the county areas in question are now Reform and Richard Tice specifically referenced more JRs to come in the debate today.

But the more interesting decision will come in the formation of Andy Burnham’s new government on Monday.

Does Steve Reed survive. It seems highly unlikely, which does raise the interesting question of how committed a new Secretary of state will be to an agenda that in danger of becoming overwhelmed by legal action. Afterall, it only take one to succeed and the whole process could unravel

However, as it stands today, the government is committed to a timetable that will see shadow elections next May and new unitary councils coming into effect in May 2028.

But we should have had shadow elections for the priority programme areas by now, and mayoral elections for the new Combined authorities in places like Essex and Hampshire – so probably best to keep watching this space.

How can I find out more?

If you are interested in finding out more, use this form to request our detailed analyses for any of the 14 council areas announced on Thursday, including:

  • Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
  • Derbyshire and Derby
  • Devon, Plymouth and Torbay
  • Gloucestershire
  • Hertfordshire
  • Kent and Medway
  • Lancashire, Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen
  • Leicestershire, Leicester and Rutland
  • Lincolnshire, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire
  • Nottinghamshire and Nottingham
  • Oxfordshire
  • Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent
  • Warwickshire
  • Worcestershire.

At JBP, we have over 40 years’ experience of understanding how local government works and helping companies navigate the ever-changing structures and politic of local councils. So, if you need a local guide, then look no further and get in touch today.

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