Labour held the Clevedon South ward in the North Somerset Council by-election. But the headline result only tells part of the story. Their vote dropped by more than 25%. Reform came close to winning from a standing start. The Conservatives fell to third. Yet Labour still got over the line.
The reason appears straightforward: when Reform looked capable of winning, many centre-left voters backed the candidate most likely to stop them. This is becoming a familiar pattern in some elections and is worth watching as we move towards the next round of local contests.
The result (2023 in brackets)
- Labour: 29% (-25.4%)
- Reform: 27.7% (new)
- Conservatives: 18.6% (-27%)
- Green: 16.3% (new)
- Liberal Democrat: 8.3% (new)
- Turnout: 36.4%
What does the result tell us?
The balance of the council does not change. Liberal Democrats, Greens, Labour and Independents continue to run North Somerset despite the Conservatives holding the most seats. But the direction of travel underneath this result is what matters:
- Labour won through hard campaigning. Labour’s support fell sharply, but their local campaign was well organised. Activists were on the ground early and stayed visible. Their candidate, Clevedon Town Councillor Michael Harriot, was well known locally and the campaign focused heavily on neighbourhood issues rather than national politics. In low-turnout by-elections, organisation often makes the difference. Labour did not need a strong swing; they needed just enough reliable voters.
- Reform is changing contests, even where it doesn’t win. Reform’s second-place finish is notable given Clevedon is not an obvious stronghold. Even without taking the seat, the party changed how others approached the election. Once Reform looked competitive, the race became less crowded. Where this happens, Reform becomes harder to beat, but it can also trigger tactical voting from people who want to block them. Both effects are likely to recur.
- Tactical voting probably decided the result. Campaigning from the Greens and Liberal Democrats was relatively quiet. As part of the council administration with Labour, both parties risked losing a seat if the centre-left vote split. Many voters appear to have made the same calculation and backed Labour instead. We have seen similar behaviour elsewhere when voters focus less on their preferred party and more on the outcome they want to avoid. For Labour, that was enough to hold the seat despite a large drop in support.
- The bigger warning sign is for the Conservatives. Falling into third place should concern Conservative organisers more than Labour’s reduced vote. Reform is now competing for many of the same voters. Where that continues, results become less predictable. In councils like North Somerset – already politically mixed – small shifts in vote share can decide control.
What this could mean for the 2027 all-out North Somerset Council election
If this pattern continues, future elections may not be won by the party with the most momentum, but by the one that manages the contest best. Possible outcomes include:
- Labour holding seats with lower vote share.
- Reform taking seats where opposition votes split.
- Conservatives losing ground in areas they once relied on.
- Lib Dems and Greens holding existing seats through tactical voting.
- Councils control hard to predict.
None of this suggests paralysis, but it does point to a more complex local political picture. Reform is firmly on the political scene in North Somerset, who must be considered by anybody operating in the area. The result increases the likelihood of politicians being elected on narrower majorities, a North Somerset Planning Committee that could be harder to read, more councillors whose votes matter and leadership changes with little warning. The 2027 North Somerset Council elections will be one to watch.