When things got tough in the past for incumbent governments, it was usually the moment the Lib Dems got to shine. A safe haven for disgruntled voters to deposit their frustrations, coupled with the Lib Dems famous “Winning here” mentality meant that mid-term gains were the Lib Dems speciality.
Having experimented with Jo “The next PM” Swinson, Lib Dems picked Ed Davey as a leader that would allow them to do what they do best – keep it local. The problem is that the age of three party politics has ended and votes are increasingly finding a new home to place their frustrations in the guise of the Greens and Reform.
Last May saw the Lib Dems make gains but fail to land outright councils that most had assumed would fall their way. Another lacklustre year for the Lib Dems could start an internal demand on how they position themselves in a crowded market.
My ones to watch for Lib Dems are:
Surrey (all out) – It should be one if not two gains, and many had already banked both at the beginning of the year. But walking away with neither would be a bad night for the Lib Dems, and bring into question Ed Davey’s leadership – especially if the national backdrop shows the greens making gains
Merton (all out) – Ed Davey himself referenced this as a potential gain from Labour at the beginning of the month, but recent polling has shown it still neck and neck. The problem for the Lib Dems is a sizable chunk of Green votes – and if the Lib Dems do fall short because of a strong Green showing, it will maybe bring into sharp focus the leadership styles of the two parties!
Stay tuned as I paint a party-by-party picture of the councils to watch and the stories they could tell come polling day.