The counting is over and the declarations made, and broadly speaking the outcome of these elections from a headline point of view were in line with most pundits predictions.
Labour had a bad night, losing Wales for the first time in its devolved history, large parts of London and around 1,500 net losses in the number of councillors across the country. The Conservatives did well in London, retaining control of most defending councils and reclaiming Westminster and Wandsworth but collapsed in the County Councils they were defending from their high of 2021.
The Greens made a breakthrough in Labour’s London metro core, and Reform came out of top with an overall gain of nearly 1,500 seats nationally.
And you could stop there – indeed many agencies would. However, this election was more than just a ‘mid-term’ crash for the incumbent government, or the continued split in the right of centre vote. There were some fundamental structural changes taking place in the political map that are important for businesses understand.
So, here are my quick takeaways from last Thursday:
Reform is starting to dominate the North
Last year Reform pretty much cleaned up in the County Council elections held in the North. They took councils like Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Durham, Lancashire, Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire – mostly from the Conservatives, but many had been Labour in the past and had returned Labour MPs in the 2024 general election.
This year saw the turn of Labour’s Northeastern heartland towns. Reform took the likes of Wakefield, Barnsley, Calderdale and St Helens – and we are talking landslides here. Just look at Wakefield, where Reform took 58 of the 63 seats up for grabs.
Again, a quick look at the map would show Labour holding on in, say, the likes of Wigan. But most of these instances are because those councils elect in thirds. Of the 25 seats up in Wigan, Reform won 24. Indeed, across the Northeast, Reform came out with the lion’s share of seats, even where they were unable to remove Labour’s majorities.
Why is this important? Well, if the trend continues, then Reform is on course to be the new Party of the North (outside of the big metropolitan areas). Labour could have another two local election cycles of Northern losses in store, arriving at the 2029 general election depleted and defeated – with huge number of parliamentary seats void of any activists remaining in its local authorities.
The Greens surged, but in limited places
There is a lot of talk about the Greens and Zack being the left equivalent of Reform and Nigel. This is true in some high-profile London boroughs, including Hackney, Lewisham and Waltham Forest, where they completely decimated Labour and emerged as a genuine force in inner London.
But it wasn’t emphatic. There were plenty of similar boroughs that the Greens failed to dislodge Labour. In Camden and Islington, Labour remained on top and in control – and while they lost seats, the Greens were some way behind.
Indeed, outside of London the picture was more mixed. Yes, in Manchester the Greens took half the seat up for grabs. But in Suffolk, where they run two of the district councils and Adrian Ramsay gained a parliamentary seat, it was Reform UK that catapulted themselves ahead to take outright control of the county council.
It’s clear that Zack has taken on the mantel of Corbyn and has a clear focus on Labour’s metropolitan heartlands. This is not good news for a Labour Party already under attack in the North. However, it’s not quite the sign of a party about to take Westminster by storm, and future gains will seemingly be limited to urban councils.
London was different
It’s worth highlighting this as we examine the performance of the main political parties in this election. Reform, for instance, didn’t end up cleaning up in outer London boroughs as many predicted. Indeed, their only win was Havering, which has a track record of being different to the London norm when it comes to politics, and still identifies closely with Essex.
Predictions about turquoise gains in Hillingdon, Bexley and Barking and Dagenham turned out to be wide of the mark. Yes, both Labour and the Conservatives saw their share of the vote go down across the city – just look at Westminster, where the Conservatives shed 4% from their 2022 tally but still made 9 gains – but both groups still came out with control of several of their defending councils.
Indeed, in many boroughs it still felt like two party politics. Look at Enfield and Barnet, where most of the seats were won by either the Conservative or Labour, with a token (though now powerful) number of Green councillors. Then compare that to the traditional main party wipeouts in Wakefield or Essex.
So, what’s different about the capital? Firstly, Reform’s appeal in metropolitan urban London isn’t great. Reform does well in certain demographics, and London isn’t particularly skewed in that direction.
Second, it’s a question of campaigning resource. Both the Conservatives and Labour have a disproportionate amount of their members and activists living in the capital. This translates to foot soldiers in volume to knock on doors and galvanise support. Reform UK and the Greens are catching up on numbers, but you cannot spend your way round that deficit – and it turns out that conversations on doorsteps still matter to drive turnout and capture wavering voters.
So for the moment, at least London will act differently from the rest of the country. That fact alone saved Kemi’s leadership – but the outcome of the next general election is probably going to be determined outside of the capital.
Fragmented politics seems here to stay
The BBC’s calculation of the share of the national vote following last Thursday’s elections had Reform UK on 26%, followed by the other 4 parties on 16-18% (so statistically tied!).
That’s completely unheard of, and as John Curtice pointed out in an article over the week (here), the firstpast the post system that has traditionally helped protect the two main parties is now disproportionately punishing them when it comes to seats and council control.
Indeed Reform, the party that had most to complain about following the 2024 general election where it got 2% more vote than the Liberal Democrats for 67 less seats, were the ones who are benefited most from the amplifying effect of our current electoral system.
With an average of just 36% of the vote, Reform has taken control of 14 councils outright, and probably have another six where they could form minority administrations.
So, what does that mean for the future? That very much depends on what happens next with Local Government Reorganisation. If that process becomes delayed due to legal challenges and potential leadership challenges, then next year will see by far the biggest set of elections across England – with a whopping 8,000+ seats up for grabs, mostly in areas where Reform have already started to dominate.
Unless something dramatically changes, we are only halfway through this seismic realignment of UK politics. With next year potentially staging the ultimate third act!
Want to tap into more insights from me and our expert team? Don’t miss our upcoming webinar ‘From Ballot Box to the King’s Speech – the week that defined our politics’ taking place on May 14: From Ballot box to King’s speech – the week that defined our politics Tickets, Thursday, May 14 • 12 PM – 12:45 PM GMT+1 | Eventbrite