In the end it was a comfortable win for the King in the North in his own backyard. A nine thousand majority and a 20% lead over Reform underlined the message that Burnham was looking for – that Reform are beatable and he is the man to beat them.

There is now no doubt that he will be Prime Minister, it’s just a matter of when and how much of a faff the Labour Party make of it over the coming weeks and months.

But what does the result mean for UK politics. Is this a turning point? Has Reform’s bubble burst? Well, I think there are three takeaways from the result:

1 – This was Andy’s backyard

It’s important to underline how much of a home advantage Andy Burnham had in this by-election. This was his hometown; in an area he has dominated (Greater Manchester) for over a decade. The seat wasn’t randomly picked; it was the one where he could guarantee the strongest reception to his message and his brand. That’s not to take away from his achievement, but this was a seat you’d struggle to see him lose.

2 – This wasn’t Labour defending its record

This was brand ‘Andy’ and not brand ‘Labour’. He wasn’t defending Starmer’s government, he was campaigning to change it. That made Reform’s job harder. Their usual message of ‘ditch Starmer’, vote Reform didn’t work. You were voting Andy to ditch Starmer – regardless of traditional party loyalties. There has never been a by-election like it. For residents in Makerfield this was an opportunity to literally change the government – and they knew it.

3 – Reform have an Achilles heel

Reform’s dominance of the last two sets of local elections have come about in a chaotic and fragmented political environment. And as long as it remains fragmented, their 26-30% in the polls delivers gains across the board. However, there has always been a risk that a “anyone but Reform” campaign could see them locked out.

In this election, Andy Burnham squeezed out every other party except for Restore (who were only a threat to Reform). Now I’m sure Andy will be loudly boasting these achievements to his fellow Labour MPs. The question becomes, is this repeatable…is it repeatable by an Andy Burnham Labour party? Or was this a fairly unique set of electoral circumstances that will be hard to repeat.

So, what will change? Will Labour get a bounce in the polls from Burnham winning (and becoming PM), almost definitely yes – even if it’s just for the relief factor that Starmer has finally gone. The bigger question is can Burnham appeal to voters outside of his home patch of the North-West. That remains to be seen, and questions remain as to how brand Andy will land in the North-East or indeed with the South more generally.

As for Reform, they will lick their wounds. They will be disappointed. They will once again question their candidate vetting processes and ponder the Restore threat (which ended up be a distraction rather than deciding factor). But ultimately they will start to eye up next year’s locals, where 8,000 seats are up for grabs!

Andy Burnham’s camp

The planning for Andy Burnham’s leadership election is well underway, and is being overseen by Louise Haigh MP and Anneliese Midgley MP, who command equal and total control over the campaign – everything goes through them, everything is ‘double ticked’ and they have swiftly become the closest advisers Burnham has.

In terms of staffing, Kate Groucutt, a longer-term adviser to Burnham will be the Campaign Director; Haydn Munro, a former advisor to Jacinda Ardern will be Deputy Director; Grace Pritchard, SpAd to Ed Miliband, will be running the press team and Danny Coyne (former advisor to Louise Haigh and Sue Gray) will be in charge of political management. Other appointments are expected in the coming days.

There is also a separate ‘Transition Team’ working on policy and planning for a potential Burnham government. Miatta Fanbulleh, former Makerfield MP Josh Simons and former Chief of Staff to Angela Rayner, Nick Parrott, are working on pulling a programme together.  

Do not expect an immediate challenge for the Labour leadership

Andy Burnham wants to give Starmer the opportunity to depart with dignity. We can expect the weekend to be relatively quiet with public calls for Starmer to go. Instead, there will likely be private representations to the current Prime Minister from senior figures in the Labour movement – Trade Union General Secretaries, significant party donors and Labour Party grandees. There will also be policy interventions from groups loyal to Burnham, such as the “Mainstream”, who will be publishing an (unofficial) piece on “Manchesterism” and what Burnham’s policy positions could look like on Monday 22 June.

If this fails to precipitate the PM setting out a timetable for departure, we can expect the beginnings of ministerial resignations from early next week, with a formal challenge not likely until towards the end of the week.

A formal challenge (with what is likely to be the majority of Labour MPs backing Burnham) would kick off a process that would see Labour’s ruling body – the National Executive Committee (NEC) – setting out a timetable. However, this morning Lady Harman said the NEC should not have a role; rather, Sir Keir, Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting should meet and decide the terms with Deputy Labour Leader Lucy Powell.

It is possible that through political dealings, such an election has only one candidate. If that were the case, Burnham would likely become Prime Minister by mid-July. In the case of a contested election, the timetable will likely run until September, concluded before or at Labour Party conference.

It is increasingly likely however, that in all scenarios, Burnham becomes the Prime Minister, with Labour MPs from across the party moving to a position of ‘when, not if’.

What would a Burnham government look like?

While it is difficult to be certain of what a Burnham-led government would look like from the perspective of cabinet ministers, we can expect high-profile changes.

There will almost certainly be a change in Chancellor, with both Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood in the running to replace Rachel Reeves. Other major departments including the Cabinet Office, FCDO, Home, DBT, Justice, Health and Education are all likely to see changes.

There will certainly be prominent roles for both Haigh and Midgley (though Midgley is likely to take a more back room, political role). There should also be returns for Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Lucy Powell, plus new faces entering Cabinet from the junior ranks of ministerial positions. Matthew Pennycook, Alex Norris and Sarah Jones are all thought of highly by Burnham and his team.

The structure of what his Number 10 operation might look like is probably the area least developed – we can expect the likes of Grace Pritchard and Danny Coyne to have significant roles, but the question of who will be Chief of Staff is not agreed, nor is the role of Director of Policy.

What Businesses Should Do Now

Develop a clear growth narrative

Burnham’s politics is rooted in growth, investment and delivery.

Organisations seeking influence should be able to demonstrate how they contribute to:

• Economic growth
• Productivity
• Skills
• Infrastructure
• Regeneration

Arguments based solely on sector interests will become less persuasive.

Prepare for a more interventionist government

Burnham’s influence is likely to strengthen voices within Labour arguing for a more active state, greater strategic planning and stronger public-private schemes – especially in development.

Businesses should position themselves as delivery partners rather than simply lobbying for self-interested outcomes.

Do not ignore Reform

Even though Reform lost convincingly, the most important lesson from Makerfield is that Reform remains highly competitive even in seats Labour can still win.

Businesses should ensure they understand Reform’s emerging policy agenda and develop appropriate engagement strategies. The party may not have won Makerfield, but its continued strength means it remains a major force shaping political debate across Britain.