A lot has been said about Kemi’s revival in recent months, and it’s true to say she appears more confident and bullish both at PMQs and in the media. The same sadly could have been said for William Hague back in 2000 – and there is a real risk for Kemi that a similar fate could await.
The problem for Kemi is that this year’s set of elections are not great for her or her party. The big councils up are all in the Southeast and are all county councils who had their elections postponed. They all represent the Boris high of 2021, and they are all expected to be lost. Beyond that, Kemi’s hope rest on London and the glimmer of hope of gaining councils like Westminster back from Labour – but with Reform chomping away at Conservative vote, there are no guarantees.
So, my two picks for the Conservatives are:
Essex (all out) – This is Kemi’s backyard and home county for some 10 conservative MPs (including the likes of Cleverly, Priti and Mark Franscois). It would start to feel too close to home for some in the Conservative Party if this went heavily Reform.
Westminster (all out) – Can Conservatives win here? This was almost a dead cert a couple of months ago, but now there is a real sense that Reform could spoil the party (not by winning, but by taking enough votes split the vote). No win here would certainly destroy the narrative that Kemi is fighting back and potentially leave her without a Con Gain council to visit come Friday.
Stay tuned as I paint a party-by-party picture of the councils to watch and the stories they could tell come polling day.