Labour is going to have a bad night. That’s clearly already factored in, and a loss of around 1,000 seats would be a surprise to no one (including most members of the Labour party). The risk for Labour not necessarily the number, but where they are losing and to whom.
That’s because the Labour party is facing a challenge on two fronts. In their Metro heartlands (think inner London) the Greens, buoyed by their parliamentary by-election win, are looking to replace Labour as the natural party of the urban left, and in the traditional blue collar Red Wall they are clearly under pressure from an ever-expanding Reform party.
While eyes will be on Wales and Scotland, my two picks are:
Camden – Maybe a bit obvious, but for me Labour losing control here in Keir Starmer’s backyard and in central London would be symbolic loss and an indication of a fundamental collapse of Labour’s previous core metro coalition.
Wakefield – This has been Labour since 1974. A red wall seat council that just says, “the labour party”. Normally elected in thirds, a Boundary changes means it’s all out – at a time where the Labour party is in real trouble, this could be the moment history is changed!
Stay tuned as I paint a party-by-party picture of the councils to watch and the stories they could tell come polling day.