It’s fair to say that LinkedIn is awash with agencies and pundits all tripping over themselves to make predictions about this year’s local elections. A day doesn’t pass without another insight report or another bespoke opinion poll desperately trying to predict the outcome (and of course make themselves look good!).
If you’re reading this hoping for a similar glut of tea leaf predictions, then please stop now. As someone who has spent 30 years running political campaigns, I can tell you that that the ballot box is more unpredictable today than it’s even been!
This is even truer at local council level, where low turnout, small electorates and minute margins mean that outright control of a council could end up being decided by literally a handful of votes – or even worse, the drawing of lots (if you don’t believe me, google Northumberland in 2021!).
The age of photo finishes
Back in 2017, when as Leader I regained control of Gloucestershire, in nearly all the seats we won we did so with 50% plus of the vote. These days council seats (and even parliamentary seats in most cases) are won by parties getting 30-35% of the vote.
A by-election I was involved in last year saw just 18 votes between first and third place, out of a total of 1,600 votes cast. That’s a difference of just 1%. Now bear in mind that most polling has a margin of error of +/-3% and you can see why making predictions can be a mugs game!
So, what’s going to happen?
Ok, so I’m not going to make predictions, but we are going to give you a guide by party as to what to look out for. The councils to watch, not because they are likely to be a surprise but because they tell a story about the state of each party currently.
For at JBP, our strength comes from understanding what’s happening beyond the national headlines to the issues on the ground that make the difference for our clients. It means analysis that’s beyond just numbers, but the real story of how councils are changing and the new personalities that you and your business need to know.
So, in the five days leading up to the elections, we will look at each party in turn and highlight the results that will determine their story come polling day.