The Polanski mystique is over after two days of brief speculation: Green Party leader Zack Polanski AM, has announced his intention to run as his party’s candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
This decision will surprise few. Polanski has openly declared his desire to join Westminster as a London MP. Victory would instate him as the first Green representative of a London constituency in the House of Commons, an opportunity too rich to pass. His emergence as the likely Green candidate immediately increases the pressure on Labour, which is still considering applications ahead of selecting its own standard-bearer.
This is not Zack Polanski’s first electoral experience in the Camden borough. In 2015, he stood as a Liberal Democrat candidate for the St Pancras and Somers Town ward and secured 96 votes – a count he should manage to build on considerably in this contest.
Many in the Green camp will revel at their leader’s decision to run in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, possibly offering the Green party the strongest chance it has to push Labour out where it has been comfortably sat for more than 40 years. In the murky shadows, however, some will be wondering whether Polanski’s bid for Parliament at this political moment could implode around him and the Green party in a humiliating defeat.
The risk is great. Zack Polanski’s political career will rest on winning this contest against the full force of the Labour campaign machine, enjoying far greater resources and experience in fighting by-elections. A heavy defeat at the ballot box, just as the Greens seek to consolidate their newfound popularity, would inevitably raise questions about whether the party’s momentum, and its leader, can survive.
The party must therefore persuade first-time Green voters into the fold. Polanski’s party was an undeniable force in Camden borough local elections in May, removing Labour councillors from 10 seats and forming the official opposition on the council. What was crucial then, and which cannot be said now, was the Starmer factor.
The elections in the then-prime minister’s backyard gave the urban, progressive population of Camden a ripe opportunity to stick two fingers to the country’s most unpopular leader. Mr Eco-Populism may not command such an appeal with the long term Labour voters in Holborn and St Pancras that changed allegiance in May to protest the national government’s performance but are now being pulled along with the Andy Burnham vibes.
By putting himself forward, Polanski has transformed the by-election into a direct test of his leadership, recognised by some as a ‘Polanski vs. Burnham’ contest. What is to be seen now is whether his brand can withstand the full force of the Labour campaign machine and carry him into the House of Commons.