Last year Reform were the surprise winners of the local elections, sweeping aside conventional political wisdom and not least taking many in the Conservative Party by surprised.
This year is different. It’s different because they are expected to do well, but also because they have become the party to beat – meaning that they are more susceptible to tactical voting (see Gorton and Denton by-election).
Having said that, Reform once again have luck on their side as this set of elections not only offer rich picking in Labour’s north heartland (see my previous post on Wakefield), but the Conservatives managed to save some plum pickings when local leaders in the South East argued for elections to be deferred in all the counties.
So, for me the question isn’t where will Reform do well but how well they will do in some of the tighter races.
My ones to watch for Reform are:
Bromley (all outs) – This, by all accounts, could be a photo finish, with Conservatives and Reform vying to come out on top. Control of the council could be down to how multi-ward seats end up splitting. But a win for Reform here would indicate a good day for the party in outer London – a hold for the Conservatives would mean all is not lost.
Swindon (all outs) – When it elected in thirds, Swindon was usually the seat that typified the battle between Labour and Conservatives. So why pick it as a Reform seat? Well, over the last couple of days we’ve seen a number of councils where Reform will potentially win against the big two parties. But in this council, Reform could determine the winner rather than win themselves – because it’s not beyond possibility that Labour hold on here as Conservative and Reform split the opposition vote.
Read Mark’s breakdown of the council’s and results to watch for other parties: News + Views landing page | JBP Communications