Reform UK made a statement of intent ahead of the 2027 North Somerset Council elections, winning the Hutton and Locking by-election on 10 September.
They snatched the seat from the Conservatives, whose vote sank by over 21% in a former stronghold. The Liberal Democrats mounted a strong second-place challenge, but a spilt progressive vote left them short. Labour fell to fourth, an ominous sign for the party in neighbouring Weston-super-Mare wards ahead of 2027.
Reform’s entry into the already politically diverse North Somerset political scene has transformed the elections into a genuine five-party contest. So what could this all mean in both Conservative and Labour wards?
Result (2023 in brackets):
Reform: 38.5% (new)
Liberal Democrat: 33.3% (+13.7%)
Conservatives: 15.3% (-21.2%)
Labour: 7.2% (-9.2%)
Green: 5.7% (new)
Turnout: 26.3%
REFORM GAIN from Conservatives: The Conservatives now have 12 North Somerset councillors, remaining the largest party on the Council despite not being in the rainbow governing coalition. But the direction of travel matters, with the result a marker of how quickly the party has displaced the Conservatives in previously safe wards.
Reform consolidates the right and eyes 2027: Reform UK absorbed the ward’s right-wing voting bloc, as well as those who tend to vote for independent candidates. The result tees Reform up well for 2027 where the party is the big unknown, having not stood at all in 2023. It also shows Reform’s capacity to not only disrupt contests in a highly competitive council but also take seats. Winning wards in and near Weston-super-Mare was not unexpected, given the party’s known strength in parts of the wider area, but a key test for Reform will be how well their vote fares in wards closer to Bristol in the West of the Authority.
Conservative collapse in a former stronghold: The by-election followed the death of Terry Porter, a highly popular, active and long-serving Conservative councillor who had held the seat since 2009. Without his personal local profile, the Conservative vote collapsed by more than 21%, dropping the party to a distant third place on just 15.3%. The scale of the Conservatives’ collapse in a stronghold suggests that no ward is safe for them in 2027, with a combination of Reform and areas where the Liberal Democrats finished in a close second place in 2023.
A split progressive vote costs the Liberal Democrats victory: The Liberal Democrats will be disappointed with their campaign, seeing their second place finish as a missed opportunity to take the seat. Unfortunately for the Lib Dems with Labour and the Greens drew away a combined 12.9% of the vote, splitting the progressive and left-of-centre vote to prevent them from overtaking Reform. They will be hoping that falling short here is not a sign of things to come across North Somerset next year.
Labour’s fourth place sends a warning to its Weston strongholds: Labour MP for North Somerset, Sadik Al Hassan, campaigned in the ward despite having no realistic chance of winning – a sign of concern that Reform’s advance could ultimately threaten the parliamentary seat of Weston-super-Mare. Labour’s seven-point decline, in a ward increasingly seen as part of Weston-super-Mare’s suburbs, points to a threat to Labour’s council wards of Weston Winterstoke, Weston South and Weston Milton as 2027 approaches.
Can a divided progressive vote help Reform in 2027?
Given the rainbow coalition that currently runs the council, the entry of Reform UK since the 2023 North Somerset Council elections makes the job of anticipating the final outcome in 2027 even harder with all parties being mindful of the new entrants locally. Yet the result of Hutton and Locking does show the impact that Reform could have on contests, even if the party’s national momentum has stalled somewhat:
- Reform taking votes from the Conservatives in traditionally safe areas, either winning the ward outright or letting parties like the Liberal Democrats steal it through the middle. Could we see Tory wipeout here?
- No Conservative seat is safe without tactical voting to keep them in play.
- Divided progressive votes threaten wards held by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, which may benefit Reform.
- Labour wards are at risk in urban Weston, where Reform has a strong presence.
A look ahead for the development industry
The development industry will need to remain alert as the Local Plan progresses, with the process likely to become increasingly political in the run-up to May as parties respond to growing concern about the electoral threat posed by Reform.
Whatever the outcome, a council under no overall control remains the most likely scenario. The key question will be whether the current rainbow coalition can retain enough seats to maintain control, with Labour facing pressure in Weston and the contests in the rural areas and towns in the west of the authority likely to prove particularly important.